This isn’t exactly an in depth study so I could still be wrong, but it’s much more convincing than just some assurance from a random stranger on the internet.
It’s not deeply rigorous but it’s correct reasoning in principal.
The scientific and statistical standard interpretation of the null hypothesis is that there’s no relationship between the variables in question. It’s up to the researcher to establish an evidence based argument that the null hypothesis should be rejected in favor of some alternative.
When we “fail to reject” the null hypothesis, we haven’t proved it’s true, we just continue to assume it is until someone proves otherwise.
In this case, the alternate hypothesis is that there’s a correlation between incarceration and crime rates and the null is that no such correlation exists.
I’m curious then, and this is not a value judgment. This is a genuine question to understand the perspective. Is the threat of getting abused in jail the only thing keeping you from breaking the law? If you could guarantee no consequences, would you start murdering? Personally, things wouldn’t change for me. Just like I don’t need god as a moral authority, I don’t need law to want to be beneficial to my community.
Personally I don’t murder because I don’t want to and I feel like it’s wrong to do so. Sure there are consequences, but I really don’t need them to stop me from going out murdering people. Perhaps there are people who do need these consequences, but it seems a fair statement to say that most don’t.
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According to a quick search, the US has the 6th highest incarnation rate per capita but is only 148th lowest in intentional homicide rate. Obviously this is far from conclusive but it suggests there’s no strong correlation. There are likely much more significant factors than how prison-happy a country is.
This isn’t exactly an in depth study so I could still be wrong, but it’s much more convincing than just some assurance from a random stranger on the internet.
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It’s not deeply rigorous but it’s correct reasoning in principal.
The scientific and statistical standard interpretation of the null hypothesis is that there’s no relationship between the variables in question. It’s up to the researcher to establish an evidence based argument that the null hypothesis should be rejected in favor of some alternative.
When we “fail to reject” the null hypothesis, we haven’t proved it’s true, we just continue to assume it is until someone proves otherwise.
In this case, the alternate hypothesis is that there’s a correlation between incarceration and crime rates and the null is that no such correlation exists.
As of now, the bulk of the research has failed to find such a relationship https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C22&q=correlation+incarceration+crime&btnG=
I’m curious then, and this is not a value judgment. This is a genuine question to understand the perspective. Is the threat of getting abused in jail the only thing keeping you from breaking the law? If you could guarantee no consequences, would you start murdering? Personally, things wouldn’t change for me. Just like I don’t need god as a moral authority, I don’t need law to want to be beneficial to my community.
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Personally I don’t murder because I don’t want to and I feel like it’s wrong to do so. Sure there are consequences, but I really don’t need them to stop me from going out murdering people. Perhaps there are people who do need these consequences, but it seems a fair statement to say that most don’t.
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You’re taking the utterings of keyboard warriors as reflective of reality?
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