Let me restate your point to make sure I understand it, as I haven’t seen your point expressed elsewhere.

Scenario 1:

• Democratic candidate for president is Biden.
• Progressives want a more progressive candidate for the next election, so they refuse to vote for Biden.
• As a result, Trump wins the election.
• In the 2028 DNC primaries, the democratic candidate for president is more progressive than Biden was.
• Progressives vote for the dem candidate, who wins.
• The democratic party is permanently shifted leftwards.

In this scenario, having a more progressive president in 2028 (and beyond) outweighs the damage caused by a Trump presidency.

Scenario 2:

• Democratic candidate for president is Biden.
• Progressives decide to vote for Biden, despite their distaste.
• As a result, Biden wins reelection.
• In the 2028 DNC primaries, the democratic candidate for president is similar to Biden.
• The democratic party stays centrist, to the distaste of progressives.

In this scenario, avoiding a Trump presidency is worth giving up the opportunity to move the democratic party permanently more leftwards.

Do I have this right? If not, please, I’m truly curious, as I find your game theory points compelling.

Assuming I do have your position correct, I think you’re making a couple of inaccurate assumptions:

• While the DNC clearly tips the scales in favor of its preferred candidate, the DNC is not the sole decision maker. (For example, in the 2008 primaries, the voters chose Obama despite the clear preference of the DNC for Clinton.)
• A Trump presidency would be singularly bad for the nation, both in the short term (e.g., immediate repeal of executive actions on gun control, clean energy, and LGBTQ+ rights; increased support of Israel’s genocide in Gaza) and long term (e.g., more MAGA judges and justices, further emboldening the GOP to be more MAGA). It’s also possible that a Trump presidency effectively ends proper democracy in the US, meaning any potential gains of a future progressive president would be irrelevant.

I agree that the more we push the party leftward, the better for all. But I believe the time to do this is in presidential primaries, state/county/local elections, local and national organizing, and even personal outreach to individuals (admittedly, this last one is very small scale, but it’s also the only way to truly change people’s minds and positions).

No matter how much you think both candidates are shit, you must be able to realize that one is far and beyond worse than the other.

I have this problem playing smash bros with my kids. Solution? Pump up my handicap to >100% and play Kirby. Basic hits knock Kirby out, so it actually becomes a challenge for me, and they love beating me up. Win win!